Quarterly Gross State Product Australia, Quarterly GSP Australia, Quarterly State Accounts Australia. Economic growth. GSP growth. New South Wales (NSW), Victoria (Vic), Queensland (Qld), South Australia (SA), Western Australia (WA), Tasmania (Tas), Australian Capital Territory (ACT), Northern Territory (NT). Benchmarking. June quarter 2023, 2022/23. Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), Cat No. 5220.0, Cat No. 5206.0.
On 5 September 2023 the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) published the June quarter 2023 Australian National Accounts: National Income, Expenditure and Product (Cat. No. 5206.0), which means we can update the Practical Economics quarterly Australian state and territory Gross State Product (GSP) data series.
The ABS publishes quarterly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Cat. No. 5206.0, and annual GSP in Australian National Accounts: State Accounts (Cat No. 5220.0), but does not publish quarterly state and territory GSP.
The Practical Economics quarterly GSP method involves benchmarking quarterly industry indicators to annual GSP data. For a full description of the method see here and in the Technical Paper that can be downloaded here.
At this stage our quarterly industry indicators are national quarterly industry value-added data (i.e. the initial indicator for each industry is the same in every state and territory), which are benchmarked to annual state and territory GSP.
These are experimental data and we encourage you to read our disclaimers here and here.
In particular, we now have four un-benchmarked quarters through 2022/23 that are extrapolated from the 2021/22 annual benchmark. This means we are now as far way from an annual benchmark (four quarters) as we will get prior to the publication of the 2022/23 State Accounts in November.
Table 1 below shows quarterly GSP growth for the June quarter 2023. Most states and territories experienced strong economic growth in the June quarter 2023 and year to the June quarter (June quarter 2023 relative to the June quarter 2022).
The Victorian economy continues to recover, although it is not back to where it could have been had the COVID-19 lockdowns not occurred.
Western Australian GSP growth slowed in the June quarter, although the ABS notes that iron ore and oil and gas, two of the State’s main industries, contracted due to supply disruptions (the contraction was national but both of these industries are centered in Western Australia), so it might recover quickly.
Table 1: June Quarter 2023 Practical Economics Gross State Product, Percentage Changes, Chain Volume Data
| State | Quarterly Growth Mar-23 to Jun-23 | Year-on-year Growth Jun-22 to Jun-23 |
| NSW | 0.64 | 2.45 |
| VIC | 1.41 | 2.28 |
| QLD | 0.47 | 2.23 |
| SA | 0.43 | 1.81 |
| WA | 0.09 | 2.16 |
| TAS | 0.16 | 1.47 |
| NT | 0.34 | 2.31 |
| ACT | 1.33 | 4.17 |
| AUS | 0.68 | 2.3 |
As is always the case, the COVID lockdown induced contractions in all states and territories dominates a chart of historical quarterly GSP growth, with the double-dip lockdown apparent in the eastern states. Nevertheless, this chart shows Victoria’s recent improvement and the smaller states and territories reverting to mean (national) growth.
Nevertheless, the smaller states and territories remain well above their pre-COVID lockdown terns growth, as measured by their output gap relative to their respective December quarter 2017 to December quarter 2019 trend output. The national economy remains roughly on trend relative to the pre-COVOD lockdown trend.
However Queensland, South Australia, Western Australia, Tasmania and the Northern Territory all remain above their previous trend while New South Wales, Victoria and the ACT lag their previous trends.
Table 2: Australia State and Territory Gross State Product, Potential versus Actual, Chain Volume, Seasonally Adjusted, Jun-23 vs Dec-2017, Positive Value Means Output Below Trend
| State | Output Gap (percentage points) |
| NSW | 1.26 |
| VIC | 2.38 |
| QLD | -0.83 |
| SA | -5.75 |
| WA | -5.58 |
| TAS | -1.61 |
| NT | -3.99 |
| ACT | 1.49 |
| AUS | -0.46 |
There appears little prospect of the lost production during 2020 to 2022 being recovered.
The next regular update to our series will come from the ABS National Income, Expenditure and Product release on 6 December 2023, which will include national industry data for the September quarter 2023. The full annual National and State Accounts for 2022/23 will be released on 21 November 2023, so we will do a true-up for our quarterly estimates for this financial year.
If you have any comments, suggestions or want to purchase full results then please contact us. This isn’t our full-time job and we generate Practical Economics content when we can, so we might not reply immediately, but we will get back to you.
Alternatively sign up for our newsletter for more great content coming soon.